Reform slipping in the polls

The next UK election is not due until 2029, and yet many have treated Reform’s recent dominance as if it were baked in. Increasingly, though, it looks like Reform are struggling to hold on to the lead they’ve enjoyed for several months:

📊 NEW | Reform lead by 6pts
‼️ Lowest Reform % since April

➡️ REF – 25% (-2)
🔴 LAB – 19% (-)
🔵 CON – 18% (+1)
🟢 GRN – 16% (-1)
🟠 LD – 15% (+2)

Via @YouGov, 23-24 Nov (+/- vs 16-17 Nov) pic.twitter.com/vYoJK5lfjk

— Stats for Lefties 🍉🏳️‍⚧️ (@LeftieStats) November 25, 2025

It’s almost like the more people see of Reform the less they like them.

The poll truth

With YouGov, Reform have hit highs of 29% throughout 2025:

It isn’t just YouGov which have Reform on a downward trajectory either:

📊 Estimated seats on latest Lord Ashcroft poll:

➡️ REF – 289 (+284)
🟢 GRN – 77 (+73)
🟠 LD – 77 (+5)
🔵 CON – 76 (-45)
🟡 SNP – 45 (+36)
🔴 LAB – 41 (-370)

Based on @LordAPolls poll, 13-17 Nov (+/- vs GE24) pic.twitter.com/HHVcjkoRVc

— Stats for Lefties 🍉🏳️‍⚧️ (@LeftieStats) November 24, 2025

📊 Projected seat count on Opinium poll:

➡️ REF – 379 (+374)
🟠 LD – 81 (+9)
🔴 LAB – 56 (-355)
🟡 SNP – 46 (+37)
🟢 GRN – 24 (+20)
🔵 CON – 20 (-101)

Based on Opinium poll, 19-21 Nov (+/- vs GE24) pic.twitter.com/3o0rQDbyQ5

— Stats for Lefties 🍉🏳️‍⚧️ (@LeftieStats) November 22, 2025

For a party to achieve a majority, they need 326 seats. If the Opinium poll reflected the 2029 outcome, Reform would have that; if it was one of the other two, they’d need to form a government with another party. While we’re sure they’d have no problems crawling into bed with the Tories, it wouldn’t reflect well on the anti-establishment party to immediately shack up with the establishment.

Of course, all this would depend on Reform maintaining their polling position, which they realistically might not. The way things are going, we could end up with five parties all polling in the high teens and if that happens, all manner of coalition options would be on the table.

The pressing question is how are Reform managing to squander their lead?

The end is Nigel

For most of 2025, voters have been turning against Labour due to Keir Starmer’s litany of failures. Since voters haven’t forgotten about the 14 years of Tory mismanagement which preceded Starmer, the main beneficiary of Labour’s collapse has been Nigel Farage’s Reform Party. Devoid of ideas of their own, Labour tried to claw back support by mimicking their opponents. This didn’t work, of course. Whenever a centrist party attempts to shift right, it reinforces the impression that their so-called rivals are two steps ahead, prompting voters to vote for them instead.

As a result of their poll lead, Reform have received a lot more attention. The problem is that Reform is riddled with freaks, ex-Tories, and a guy who took money to push pro-Russian propaganda.

Here are just some of the PR nightmares that Reform have had in recent months:

Sarah Pochin MP: “It drives me mad seeing adverts full of black and Asian people.”

Caller Stuart in London asks the Reform MP if her party will do anything about the ‘representation of demographics in TV adverts’.@petercardwell | @SarahForRuncorn pic.twitter.com/RivnW1tusj

— Talk (@TalkTV) October 25, 2025

Reform UK’s ‘Cost Cutting’ Council Kent Prepares to Raise Taxes After Presiding Over £46 Million Overspendhttps://t.co/4KMBK9myjr #KemkaranMustGo

— Reform Party UK Exposed 🇬🇧 (@reformexposed) November 25, 2025

It’s now 24 hours since Nigel Farage’s man in Wales was sent down for 10+ years for taking pro-Russian bribes.

Why won’t Farage allow an independent investigation to root out any pro-Russian links in Reform? What has he got to hide? pic.twitter.com/lOgiGDCexu

— Labour Press (@labourpress) November 22, 2025

For once, I’m lost for words https://t.co/y2uzUcJM5u

— Max (@maxcownie_) November 10, 2025

Major Donor to Reform U.K. Party Sold Weapons Parts to Russian Supplierhttps://t.co/8j3jTuTPYd

There was £100k from subsidiary company Techtest in May 2019 and then £50k (not mentioned in the article) from parent company HR Smith group in May 2024.https://t.co/7DpXrQfNGF

— Reform Party UK Exposed 🇬🇧 (@reformexposed) October 16, 2025

Reform UK are Tories 2.0

Here’s a list of former Conservative MPs that are now members of Reform UK:

Maria Caulfield
Danny Kruger
Andrea Jenkyns
Aidan Burley
Alan Amos
Nadine Dorries
David Jones
Sir Jake Berry
Graham Simpson
Adam Holloway
Anne Marie Morris
Marco Longhi
Ross… pic.twitter.com/gmtUBMGjL5

— Reform Party UK Exposed 🇬🇧 (@reformexposed) September 16, 2025

Real alternatives

The focus on Reform isn’t the only shift in the polls. The Green Party has significantly increased its presence, at Reform’s expense.

To varying degrees, Farage’s supporters are voting Reform because they’re not Labour or the Tories. This makes Reform vulnerable to populist-leaning parties, such as the Greens and Your Party, offering bold plans to tackle inequality at the root.

Reform know this, too, which is why they’re now attacking Zack Polanski as much as Keir Starmer:

Rattled! https://t.co/4LD9fplcUZ

— Curtis Daly (@CurtisDaly_) November 21, 2025

Of course, a lot will happen between now and 2029, but it’s worthwhile acknowledging Reform’s weaknesses, if only to discourage those politicians who think that mimicking Nigel Farage will pave the path to victory.

Featured image via Steve Bowbrick (Flickr)