Early Payout in Sports Betting: Why Do Bookmakers Declare Your Bet Won Early?

A bookmaker settling a bet early before a sports event has ended sounds counterproductive to their business model. Settling a bet means that they are paying out winnings to the customer, and they have, at that point, eliminated all of the punter’s risk in the bet.

Think of a football team that’s gone two goals ahead in a Premier League match and the bookie settles the wager as a win. It’s like they are throwing their hands up in the air, saying that there is no chance that the losing team could mount a comeback to gain a draw or even a remarkable win. But why would a bookmaker do this?

The main area of online sports betting where this phenomenon is found is through special promotions, most commonly for existing customers. Browse through a list of bookmakers on Legalbet UK, an expert resource site that rates operators for quality, and on those betting platforms, you’ll likely find early payout offers. While the punter can gain an obvious big benefit, what do the bookmakers themselves get out of it by settling early?

Early Payouts

Early payout offers are related to specific scenarios where a bookmaker will settle a market. Some prime examples of this are a football team going two goals ahead in a game, an ice hockey team opening up a three-goal lead or a tennis player going two sets ahead in a best-of-five match.

If the exact conditions are met, the bet is immediately settled as a win, regardless of the final outcome of the event. This, on the surface, looks like an immediate loss for the bookmaker, but it is not; it’s more of a strategic marketing cost, as a well-crafted promotion can drum up some major extra interest on a particular fixture or market.

Strength in Numbers

After all, from the bookmaker’s perspective, a two-goal lead in a football match is a strong position for a team to be in, and they will likely win, so the bookmaker would most likely have to pay out on that outcome anyway.

Bookies, however, can suffer financial losses from promotions like this. Think of the scenario where a bookmaker pays out on a £10 stake backing a team to win a match at 2.0 odds, after they have secured a two-goal lead, but only ended up drawing the match. They would pay out on a result that didn’t happen, as well as on the draw or the win for the other team.

But again, it’s not a statistically strong probability, and that’s what the bookie is relying on. Plus, it’s really the long-term benefits the bookmaker is striving for by pushing promotions like this.

Long Term Appeal

Even though promotions like this are not typically in the form of welcome bonus offers designed for new customers, they still play a role in attracting new players. If someone who likes to bet on tennis, for example, sees a long-standing promotion at a betting site where the operator settles a bet early if the player backed to win a match goes two sets ahead, that bookmaker is going to have more appeal to them than others.

The promotion could therefore serve indirectly as a new customer acquisition tool, because it offers something different. For existing customers, it ends up being a promotion that they can dip into whenever they want, which plays a big role in helping to nurture and build customer loyalty. Customer acquisition is just half the battle for online bookmakers; the other is retaining customers, and offers like this help with that.

Learning on Stats

Statistically, a team that goes two goals ahead in a football match, or a tennis player that’s 2-0 up in a match and then loses, is fairly low. In the 2024/25 Premier League, there were just seven instances of a team failing to win a match after holding a two-goal lead. Indeed, the probability is low enough that the early payouts become manageable for the operator.

There will be the odd loss along the way, of course, because sport is wonderfully random at times. But it’s the promotional angle which really benefits the bookie. The more people, whether that’s new customers or existing ones, who bet on a football match simply because of an early payout offer, drives up the bookmaker’s profits either way.

The greater the volume, the more the incoming stakes will outweigh any losses accrued from settling the bets early. So the early settlements aren’t obviously designed to be a loss of funds, but instead a well-calculated and time-tested strategy to boost the volume of bets.

Featured image by JESHOOTS

Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute gambling advice. Gambling involves risk and can lead to financial loss. Please gamble responsibly and only wager what you can afford to lose. If you feel your gambling is becoming a problem, seek help from BeGambleAware.org or call the National Gambling Helpline on 0808 8020 133.