Europe’s bleak future: blistering heatwaves and disastrous droughts put human life at risk

The threat from climate crisis-driven extreme weather is ramping up in Europe. A new report has warned about the risks of increasingly deadly summers across the continent. In a year of contrasting climate extremes, 2023 saw catastrophic consequences right across the continent.

The number of ‘extreme heat stress’ days was an all time high, and without quick and decisive action, they will only continue to increase. 

It was a year like none before, with blistering heatwaves, violent storms, and both disastrous droughts and flooding. On top of this, Europe’s largest ever wildfire decimated Greece. The 2023 season saw the fourth largest burned area on record in the EU, at a total of around 500,000ha. But unfortunately, this all paints the picture of what is to come.

The EU’s Copernicus Climate Change Service and the UN’s World Meteorological Organization (WMO) said in a new joint report that the events impacted over two million people – not to mention amassing €13.4bn in damages, 80% of which flooding was responsible for.

Climate crisis driving Europe’s hottest ever summers

These agencies singled out heat as the biggest climate-related threat, with the climate crisis driving Europe’s hottest ever summers. They noted that the consequences on health were particularly severe. 

Climate scientist at Copernicus, Rebecca Emerton, said: 

We’re seeing an increasing trend in the number of days with heat stress across Europe and 2023 was no exception, with Europe seeing a record number of days with extreme heat stress.

Copernicus and WMO used the Universal Thermal Climate Index for this study. This measures the effect of the environment on the human body. It takes into account many factors, including high temperatures, humidity, windspeed, sunshine, and heat emitted by the surroundings.

As it takes into consideration factors other than the actual temperature, the number represents a ‘feels-like’ temperature.

Emerton said that extreme heat stress is:

equivalent to a feels-like temperature of more than 46 degrees Celsius, at which point it’s imperative to take actions to avoid health risks such as heat stroke.

The effect on vulnerable people

Heat stress is particularly dangerous for vulnerable people, including the elderly or those with pre-existing health conditions. Prolonged exposure creates even more of a threat. 

Health related deaths have soared around 30% in the past 20 years and are estimated to have increased in 94% of the nearly 1,000 European regions monitored. Given that 23 out of the 30 worst European heat waves on record occurred during this century, the link is damning.  

23 July saw an unprecedented 13% of Europe experiencing high levels of heat stress. The worst affected was Southern Europe. Tens of thousands are estimated to have died due to the heatwaves. Currently, conclusive data from 2023 isn’t available yet. 

Alvaro Silva, a climatologist from WMO, said: 

We see that there is excess mortality when we see such extreme heatwaves like was the case in 2023.

This increase in mortality… is affecting (the) big majority of European regions. This is a big concern

Serious consequences for public health

At this point, scientists agree that greenhouse gas emissions cause the climate crisis. This is causing more intense and frequent extreme weather events. From the most extreme dry-event ever recorded in 2016, the hottest year on record, to cyclone Freddy which obliterated countries across east and southern Africa in 2023. 

However, Europe is warming at double the rate of the global average. This means that heatwaves will increase in both length and severity in the future. When this is added to ageing populations and more people moving to cities, the report notes it will have ‘serious consequences for public health’. 

In addition to this, the report pointed out that “current heatwave interventions will soon be insufficient to deal with the expected heat-related health burden”.

Our oceans absorb 90% of excess heat produced by CO2 emissions, but in 2023, these also reached never before seen temperatures. A severe marine heatwave in part of the Atlantic Ocean was described as “beyond extreme” and average sea surface temperatures were the warmest on record. 

Communities across Europe need urgent action to turn this around, In order to limit the potentially devastating consequences on them.

Feature image via Stefan Kühn/Wikimedia, cropped and resized to 1200 by 900, licensed under CC BY-SA 3.0

Additional reporting by Agence France-Presse