The Caerphilly by-election shows Reform is beatable – and Labour is finished

The Caerphilly by-election was a surprise win for Plaid Cymru. Just a week ago a Survation poll predicted a four-point lead for Reform. But if Reform are unhappy, then Labour are crushed.

Caerphilly by-election: what’s occurring?

After every election the spin doctors try to amplify their successes and play down their failures. We’ll see all the usual platitudes and attempts to shape the narratives. I’d prefer it if the mainstream media stopped slavishly quoting them and did some proper analysis.

There are three lessons we can draw from the Caerphilly by-election. But first, the facts.

This is a Senned by election, or what used to be called the Welsh Assembly. It’s roughly the equivalent of a Westminster Parliamentary seat, with a first past the post system. It has been Labour since the seat was first created in 1999, and in every election Plaid Cymru came second. Last night saw a whopping 50% turnout. Compare that to the 44% turnout in the Senned general election in 2021. I can’t think of another example where a by-election polled more votes than a general. Clearly, people have not given up on politics – the good people of Caerphilly wanted their say.

Plaid’s Lindsay Whittle had been a local councillor since 1976, and served as council leader for a while. He polled over 8,119 votes in last year’s Westminster general election. It never does any harm to have good local name recognition. His 15,961 votes is a 47% votes share. Reform polled 36%, up from 1% in 2021. But Reform are not the new kids on the block they pretend – they polled 7,754 votes in the 2024 general election. With 20% vote share in 2024 to Plaid’s 21%, they were neck and neck, and Plaid have won more of the collapsing Labour vote than Reform.

Labour plummeted from 46% last time to just 11%. The Tories matched their collapse, from 17% in 2021 to 2% last night, losing their deposit. It does look like a new era in politics.

So what does this tell us?

Labour is screwed – and Reform’s bubble can be burst

One, Labour is mortally wounded.

Caerphilly is a constituency of South Wales Valleys. The spiritual home of the Labour movement. Labour’s superficially impressive haul of 411 Westminster MPs in July 2024 was an anti-Tory vote. They’ve squandered their opportunity.

Labour have been insincere, insidious, and incompetent. Having won the leadership by lying to Labour members (remember his Ten Pledges?), team Starmer doubled down and told different lies to different sections of the electorate. It’s not just that they are floundering in the polls. The party is structurally ashamed of itself. This time last year my social media feeds still had a handful of tribal Labour loyalists saying “give them time”.

No more.

They’ve given up. Many Labour MPs won’t even defend the government now.

Two, Reform are dangerous, but can be stopped.

South Wales is a text-book example of communities hit by the cost of living and public services decimated by austerity. Locals have been telling me for the past year that it’s a recruiting ground for the disaffected who think all politicians are the same. Young men in particular, they say, are angry and want to stick it to the establishment, and hear the siren call of blaming immigrants amplified by the billionaire press and Reform’s own TV station, GB News. But despite all that, Reform lost.

Three, a progressive alliance can win. Reform might lead in UK-wide opinion polls, but they still only have support from a quarter of the population. The idea of progressive alliances sounds obvious. But it can’t simply be a deal done in Westminster.

For a progressive alliance to work, it needs to be embedded in the community.

The community won it

Majority members in South Wales tell me they are hugely encouraged and heartened by the Caerphilly by-election result. The rejection of Reform is a significant victory for everyone who stands against racism and intolerance. For everyone who wants fairness and tolerance over inequality and division.

The result reflects the commitment and perseverance of local community organisers who mobilised to fight the Labour council’s decision to close libraries. When Labour ran an advert saying “Vote Labour to save our libraries” their hypocrisy was exposed. Community organisers won their campaign to stop cuts to school buses, so kids can get to school safely. Anti-racist campaigners throughout Caerphilly united to challenge the politics of hatred and division. Voters have heard broken promise after broken promise from political parties. They are far more likely to trust the people who have stood and defended their communities.

If politicians can’t organise a progressive alliance, the public will vote tactically themselves. The flexibility that Majority brings overcomes sectarianism and allows skilled organisers and motivated activists to work together cross-party. Sometimes you just need to get the job done.

The Caerphilly by-election result debunks Labour’s last remaining argument. That despite their austerity, Island of Strangers, and omnishambles, voters still have to back them or get Farage. They did their usual bar graph, painted ten feet high on the side of a van, “Only Welsh Labour can beat Reform”:

The evidence proves otherwise. Clearly Labour are now splitting the vote, and should stand down.

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